The Electoral College, the swing states and the 270 vote threshold
The president of the United States is elected through the Electoral College, which awards electoral votes to each state based on its representation in Congress, for a total of 538 votes. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win.
While some states like California and Texas are consistently Democratic or Republican, swing (or “battleground”) states can go either way, often depending on voter turnout and late changes in sentiment.
Over time, the states considered swing states have changed. For example, Florida has been a longtime battleground, but other states like Arizona and Georgia, historically Republican strongholds, have recently become more competitive.
The seven key states to watch on Tuesday (US time) are: Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
Outside of the battlegrounds, Harris will likely receive about 226 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, meaning 44 of the 93 votes in swing states would put her over the line. Trump is expected to get 219 votes from 24 states, with major contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17). He needs 51 of the swing state’s 93 votes to win.
When do the polls close?
Polls will begin closing in Eastern states on Tuesday at 6:00 PM Eastern Time. It is 10am on Wednesday Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT). Michigan and Wisconsin close at 1pm AEDT.
Depending on how far the election is, we may have a good idea of who the next US president will be around 5pm AEDT, but it could take days for a final result to be announced.
Paths to victory
The most likely path to Trump’s victory passes through three of the “sunbelt” states: Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16). These are states that have tended to vote Republican since the 1980s. If Trump took these states, he would have 43 undecided votes and would only need to win one of Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) or Wisconsin (10) for the 8 votes to reach 270.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were previously considered part of the Democratic “blue wall,” having voted reliably Democratic since 1992 — until Trump flipped them in 2016. However, they turned to Biden again in 2020.
If Trump lost Georgia or North Carolina, both worth 16 votes, his path to victory would become much more difficult.
For Harris, the clearest path is to maintain the blue wall. These would give her exactly the 44 votes she needs.
If he lost any of the three, he would need to secure a more traditionally Republican battleground.
Pennsylvania (nicknamed the “Keystone State” because it was the middle colony of the original 13 colonies) is the biggest prize. Polls show an uncertain situation. It’s basically a must win for both candidates.
Polls close at 11am AEDT on Wednesday.
If Trump flips Pennsylvania (19 votes), he could lose Arizona (11 votes) and still become the next president.
Swing state Electoral College votes and voting history
Here’s how each swing state voted in 2016 and 2020:
- Pennsylvania (19 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 but switched to Biden in 2020.
- Georgia (16 votes): Swinged to Biden in 2020 after a long line of Republicans.
- North Carolina (16 votes): Voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, but recent trends indicate it could be competitive.
- Michigan (15 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 but switched back to the Democrats in 2020.
- Arizona (11 votes): Swinged to Biden in 2020 after decades of Republican dominance, making Arizona competitive.
- Wisconsin (10 votes): Voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020.
- Nevada (6 votes): Voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, though recent polls show it’s still competitive.
Aggregate survey data
FiveThirtyEight (a major poll aggregation website, named after the Electoral College vote count) shows Harris ahead by 1.2 percentage points nationally, but swing states are neck and neck.
- Georgia: +2 Republican
- Michigan: +1 Democrat
- Nevada: Tie
- North Carolina: +1 Republican
- Pennsylvania: Tie
- Wisconsin: +1 Democrat
The survey combines various methods, including live interviews and online panels. In 2016, polls underestimated Trump’s support, particularly in the Midwest. To address this problem, pollsters try to take into account demographic factors such as age, race, education and geography.
A recent article in Scientific American explains why polling data should be viewed with a skeptical eye. One of the main reasons is that very few people answer unsolicited phone calls or respond to unsolicited text messages. Even the respected New York Times/Siena College survey gets a response rate of about 1%.
“The game is up,” observes Michael Bailey, a professor of American government at Georgetown University. “Once you have a 1% response rate, you don’t have a random sample.”
Insights into early voting by state
In 2020, 66.8% of citizens aged 18 and over voted. That is, approximately 158.43 million people voted, out of a voting age population of 242.27 million.
In 2024, approximately 74 million people voted early in person and by mail.
Some states that register voters by party (such as Pennsylvania and Florida) provide publicly available advance analytics. Other states include gender information, which is potentially significant; the gender gap is emerging as a key gap this year. In an Oct. 25 USA Today/Suffolk University poll, women supported Harris 53% to 36%, a mirror image of men’s support for Trump, 53% to 37%.
Based on statistics from the University of Florida Election Lab as of November 1:
- Arizona: 2.2 million early votes. According to party registration, 32.7% Democrat and 40.9% Republican.
- Georgia: 4 million early votes. By gender, approximately 55.6% are women and 43.5% are men.
- Michigan: 2.8 million votes. By gender, 55% women and 44.4% men.
- Nevada: 1.1 million votes. According to party registration, 33.7% Democrat and 37.9% Republican.
- North Carolina: 4.2 million votes. By party, 32.4% registered as Democrats, 33.6% as Republicans. By gender, 51.8% women and 41.3% men.
- Pennsylvania: 1.7 million votes. By party, 55.9% Democrat and 32.9% Republican.
- Wisconsin: 1.3 million early votes.
But, again, you have to be careful when looking at these numbers. These are the first days. For example, 1.7 million early votes were cast in Pennsylvania, but more than 6.9 million Pennsylvanians voted in 2020.
Betting markets and DJT
Polymarket, the largest political marketplace that facilitates betting on the outcome, puts Trump’s chances at 55.3%. Kalshi gives Trump a 52% chance and Smarkets gives him a 55.56% chance.
PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, is the outlier, giving Harris a slight edge at 52%.
Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT), considered something of an indicator of Trump’s political fortunes, is currently trading 13.53% lower at $30.56. This is part of a downtrend from the high of US$51.51 on October 29, but rising from the low of US$12.15 on September 23.
Betting markets can be seen as a collective best guess, based on all available information, including surveys, as they respond quickly to new information and force bettors to “put their money where their mouth is”. They also have a good track record of predicting election winners, dating back over 150 years in the United States.
However, forecasts may be overly influenced by survey data, and share movement is subject to the momentum of “herd behavior.” Furthermore, such markets have fewer participants than financial markets, meaning that large individual bets can disproportionately affect the odds.
Ahead of the 2016 election, betting markets consistently favored Hillary Clinton, with odds hovering around 70-80%.
Fundamental analysis
Allan Lichtman used his well-known “Keys to the White House” model to call the election for Harris in early September, before the Harris-Trump debate. Lichtman claims to have correctly predicted 10 of the previous 10 elections (Lichtman predicted Gore would win in 2000 and claims he only lost due to incorrect ballot counting).
Andrew Gelman, a professor of political science and statistics at Columbia University, has a model that combines economic indicators and survey data. In 2024, he teamed up with Ben Goodrich to create The Economist’s Election Tracker, which currently gives Harris a 52% chance.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, developed the “Time for Change” model, which takes into account factors such as the incumbent president’s approval rating, economic growth and the duration of the party’s control of the White House in office. As of late August, the model predicted a narrow victory for Harris in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.