Every November, the Global Carbon Project publishes the year’s global carbon budget2 emissions. It’s never good news. At a time when the world needs to reduce emissions, the numbers continue to rise. However, while emissions are moving in the wrong direction, many of the economic forces that support them are moving in the right direction. This could be the year that these various forces push hard enough to finally tip the scales.
In 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expected global energy emissions to peak by 2025. This estimate marked a big change from the previous year, triggered by accelerated investments in technologies low carbon emissions following the war in Ukraine. Rystad Energy, another research and analytics group, also predicts a peak by 2025. Ember Climate, the leading source of global electricity data, estimates that emissions from global electricity have already peaked in 2022. The Analysts may disagree on the exact date, but it’s clear that peak emissions are now within our reach.
The world is already steadily decarbonizing its electricity. Solar and wind are growing rapidly, and in 2024 these two renewable energy sources could outpace the growth in electricity demand. If this happened, coal and gas burning would decrease, and so would emissions.
Not surprisingly, when we actually reach peak emissions will depend a lot on the world’s largest emitter, China. In 2023 its emissions were still increasing. This is partly due to his continued recovery from Covid-19. An ongoing drought also means its hydroelectricity production has declined. These factors highlight, once again, how difficult they are to predict: an unexpected event can always turn a peak into another record year.
China’s peak, however, will come soon, due to the record deployment of solar and wind power and the rise of nuclear power. The country will soon add enough sustainable energy to cover the growing demand for electricity. China’s solar and wind production is already enough to cover the total electricity consumption of some of the world’s largest economies such as Canada, Brazil, Russia, Japan and even the world’s most populous country, India. Only in 2023 could it add enough to cover the UK’s entire electricity consumption.
Another reason global emissions could peak in 2024 is the electric car revolution. Global sales of petrol and diesel cars peaked half a decade ago, and the IEA estimated that nearly one in five cars sold globally in 2023 was electric. Previously, the agency did not expect this milestone to be reached before 2030. (In 2020, this figure was just 4%). This shift to electric vehicles will begin to impact global oil demand, until its peak also arrives. According to a report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, this could happen as early as 2027.
Of course, peak emissions are just the beginning. The world needs it then reduce emissions and quickly. But the downturn will be easier than the tipping point, as the energy transition will no longer be in its infancy. It is hoped that 2024 will mark the beginning of a mature global low-carbon economy.