At today’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% and the interest rate paid on foreign exchange settlement balances unchanged at 4.25% .
This is the eighth consecutive catch. The move reflects the bank’s cautious approach to managing inflation which, despite some easing, continues to pose challenges. Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in the September quarter, influenced by temporary factors such as lower fuel and electricity costs. However, underlying inflation, a more stable measure that strips out volatile items, remains at 3.5%, still above the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%. Inflation is expected to reach only the 2.5% midpoint of this range by 2026, according to the bank’s latest forecast.
The RBA statement stressed that returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe is its top priority. Economic analysts interpret this as a sign that the RBA remains open to further tightening if inflation does not ease as expected.
This could mean a prolonged period of high rates.
This decision to maintain restrictive monetary policy will likely have consequences for household spending and broader economic growth. While high interest rates have already impacted discretionary spending, particularly among households, spending by temporary residents, such as international students and tourists, has provided some resilience. However, as high rates persist, the risk of modest output growth increases as households face prolonged financial constraints. While the RBA expects a gradual pick-up in household consumption growth towards the end of the year, uncertainty remains over how quickly consumption will recover, which could influence the timing of any future rate cuts.
Labor market conditions continue to play a key role in the RBA’s inflation management strategy. While unemployment remains stable at 4.1%, for the fourth consecutive month, according to an October release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the participation rate remains high, with tight labor market conditions potentially maintaining high wages. Any sustained wage growth could strengthen inflation, prompting the RBA to keep interest rates high to prevent further price rises. Furthermore, productivity gains, which remain only modest after years of stagnation, add complexity to this outlook, as productivity improvements are crucial to dampening inflation without dampening wage growth.