Australia has officially entered its high-risk weather season – and with it comes heat, rain and fire.
For the next four months, the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) long-range forecast predicts “unusual” and mixed weather, in which tropical cyclones, bushfires, severe weather, heatwaves and floods will hit some parts of the country.
While not intended as a forecast, the long-term forecast serves as a warning for higher risks during the summer.
Here’s what you can expect this summer.
An increased risk of forest fires
The BoM says there is an increased chance of bushfires across the country this summer.
The office’s Dr. Karl Braganza says that while we are looking at a wet December, large fires could follow in January and February, particularly if there are drier conditions. But if it were to rain more, the risk would diminish.
“There is an increased fire risk in the south,” Australia’s Emergency Management Minister Jenny McAllister said, with a focus on South Australia’s lower south-east coast and the low-lying Eyre Peninsula.
Victoria will also face an increased bushfire threat, as will northern and central NSW.
The southern half of the Northern Territory will also be at greatest risk.
“Unusually heavy” rainfall.
It could be a wetter than usual Christmas, with above-average rainfall forecast for most of Australia, particularly in December.
There is also an increased chance of “unusually high rainfall” for parts of eastern and northwestern Australia.
“Looking at the long-term outlook for the office, we are looking at an increased chance of a wet December, particularly across much of eastern and north-western Western Australia,” Braganza said.
Warmer days and nights, heat waves
A regular occurrence in Australia, this summer won’t be much different to the heatwaves expected across the country.
From December to February, warmer than average days are expected across much of the country.
We are likely to have warmer nights, with warmer than average nights more likely across most of Australia.
Northern, eastern and western Australia will also experience more “unusually high” overnight temperatures.
“We are seeing evidence that we will see a warmer than average summer with the risk of extreme heat, particularly in the north,” Braganza said. “It is likely to be quite sticky and wet at times.”
Braganza also urged vulnerable people, the elderly and those suffering from conditions sensitive to extreme heat to exercise caution.
McAllister urged people, especially those in high-risk areas, to be prepared.
“We should all be prepared for the risk of heat waves, the leading cause of death among natural hazards,” McAllister said.
“My message to the community is that we cannot eliminate these risks. But we can prepare for them.”
Cyclones, severe storms and floods
McAllister said Australians on the east coast should also prepare for a summer of severe storms.
Some parts of Australia can also expect a higher than average chance of severe cyclones.
“December will increase the risk of flooding, particularly in the east,” Braganza said.
“It will also increase the possibility that the tropical cyclones we see will be more severe than those we have seen in the past.”
Typically, four cyclones make landfall during high-risk weather seasons.
Tips for the upcoming summer
Experts advise people living in high-risk areas to prepare for potential weather hazards.
“Understand the risk in your area,” McAllister said. “Have a plan and a kit of things you need to take with you if you have to leave.”
If you have special needs or are caring for someone with special needs, think very carefully about what extra requirements you might need when making your plan, McAllister said.
“Finally, please listen to the authorities and follow their advice.”
McAllister warned against complacency about the risk, urging people to prepare.
“In the Australian context, even our normal level of risk can still bring wildfires, floods, cyclones and heatwaves.”
